1. Q4 Festive sales to reach ~$1.5 Bn at a 65% y-o-y growth rate

Compared to a 40% growth rate in festive sales last year, we expect a 65% growth in sales in Q4 which will amount to $1.5Bn in sales. One of the reasons for this acceleration was Covid impacted Ramadan which has resulted in higher pent-up demand for White Friday. Another factor is the struggling offline retail market is not expected to fully recover by festive period and thus some of its share is expected to shift to online platforms.

UAE E-tail Festive Quarter GMV, (USD Bn)

2. This year, the e-tail category mix will look different with eGrocery gaining the most

This growth in the market is however not uniform across the various e-tail verticals. We see different trends emerging for each vertical.

  • eGrocery is the biggest gainer this year, becoming 20% of the e-tail market compared to 9% last year
  • Electronics category is likely to remain strong but not as large as previous years as demand has been somewhat saturated with category specific sales post lockdown
  • In “Others” category, Home and Home Furnishings will do better than ever before due to high demand for upgrading work- from home/ study-from-home environment

UAE E-tail Festive Quarter GMV – Category wise, (USD Bn)

3. Consumers are excited about White Friday Sales

Consumers displayed enhanced excitement for Festive sales as compared to last year. One thing of note was that for Grocery, the excitement last year was insignificant compared to 33% of consumers this year who stated that they are planning to increase purchases during White Friday. For each category, a certain type of products are top of mind for customers. For example, for electronics – mobile & laptop are expected to be top selling products. For each categories deep-dives, do reach out to us.

Excitement for White Friday – By Category, (% of respondents)

Read More:

1. Online Fashion – How Will MENA Order Online Post COVID-19?


  • Sandeep is the Partner of Redseer Strategy Consultants looking at the Middle East and Africa. He has 13+ years of experience in consulting and technology.