Is the era of live commerce set to begin?
India’s telemedicine market is currently ~INR 7K Cr. The segment is now seeing more traction as people are adopting it faster as they are reluctant to risk and physically visit a doctor.
Shortform content has shaken the content industry globally and in India as well. It changed how content was captured, perceived and shared. Soon, brands followed the route and garnered billions of views in a span of 1-2 days through campaigns, celebrity endorsements on TikTok and later Instagram Reels and more. However, things changed soon after Chinese app TikTok was banned. But, the space immediately saw a number of domestic apps filling the space which kept the shortform momentum going. Now after a year of these domestic apps filling the void, brands have now started exploring live commerce as an alternative strategy to onboard new customers. It is touted to be the next big segment in the dynamic content space, especially for brands. Here is a peek into how this industry is set to grow in the coming years.
1. India’s Live Commerce to become ~$4-5 billion GMV by 2025
Live commerce GMV – split by type of platform, In USD Bn, 2025
Note (s): 1) An in-depth scenario based forecast model has been built based on India shortform market landscape and learnings from China on live commerce opportunity 2) BPC and Fashion contributed ~65% to the total GMV of shortform live commerce in both China and Indonesia
India’s live commerce which is set for a new beginning is expected to clock a Gross merchandise value of $4-5 billion by 2025. This strategy, which is slowly gaining momentum, Of all the categories, beauty and personal care (BPC) is expected to grow the highest with more than $1 billion GMV through live commerce. Fashion is expected to contribute 60-70% of the .GMV while BPC will contribute the other 30-40%. This can be inferred as these remain the popular categories with varying ticket sizes and are frequently shopped online both in metros and small cities.
2. Which is expected to gain on the back of shortform
Emergence of channels for live commerce
Shortform content is expected to majorly drive live commerce upto $2.5-3 billion by 2025.
The separate segments have different pros and cons. The Pure-play video is entirely dedicated for live commerce but these platforms still have a small scale and it may become challenging if these platforms do not increase their daily active users (DAUs).
Specialised platforms have more than 100 million DAUs which means it can scale faster and China’s learnings show that shortform can largely drive live commerce.
So far large marketplaces have not started live commerce but integrating it can definitely be a success. Vertical players, on the other hand, are soon expected to start live commerce.
This is similar to China’s where there are currently two models which are the large marketplaces and through specialised shortform platforms.
3. With Shortform Content to see 3x growth by FY26 in India
Shortform content is the fastest growing content in India as well as globally. The market is expected to see a 3x growth in users in the next 5 years in India. As shortform sees more adoption, it will inevitably boost the live commerce segment as well. Some of the growth drivers for this content includes:
- Continuity in entertainment
- Fresh content everyday
- Localised reach for creators
- Reducing attention span
4. We expect India to follow the footsteps of China and offer a large live-commerce opportunity
Flywheel effect in shortform video – content creation to liver commerce, Descriptive
Note (s): Scale is measured in terms of DAU of the shortform market
China has shown multiple tipping points in shortform evolution starting from the content creation, consumption and maturing live commerce, it has come a long way. While India has largely followed the same journey as China, it is now at the juncture wherein creators are making millions through content creation, endorsements but are yet to start with live commerce content. This is expected to be the next big move in the ecosystem, which will inevitably strengthen the live commerce segment.