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Apr, 2021     

Lebaran 2021: Bright Spot For Online Sales

Lebaran 2021 is expected to contribute USD 5+ Bn to e-tail GMV


1. Lebaran 2021 is set to be more exciting than a slower 2020

The six weeks of Lebaran are expected to witness brisk online sales. Some categories are expected to see up to 2.8x growth from the pre-Lebaran period. This is significantly larger in terms of monthly jumps compared to the ~1.4x jump during end of year sales, making Lebaran the largest month in terms of GMV.

E-tailing Market monthly average GMV by category –Lebaran forecast 2021

From a category perspective, online players are targeting Fashion and Beauty. This contrasts with year-end sales that are mostly focused on Electronics and FMCG. Players are offering free delivery & cashbacks on digital payments, and flash sales on some fashion products are live already. Full-day flash sales are coming up in the first week of May leading up to the Lebaran day, where there are mega sales on Electronics and Beauty products.

E-tailing GMV by categories – Different sale months

2. Lebaran 2021 is expected to contribute USD 5+ Bn to e-tail GMV; a rise of over 30+% from 2020

2020 saw a pandemic affected country, where both the e-commerce operations and spending power of consumers suffered, hence having weaker sale periods but a more evenly spread out, need-based spending on e-commerce.

However, 2021 is expected to be strong, as lockdowns have been eased and e-commerce has gone from strength to strength in the past 7-8 months following lockdowns. Considering spending was curtailed during last year’s sales season, we do expect a rebound this time resulting in a strong spike during Lebaran.

Indonesia Formal eCommerce monthly GMV – Major sale periods ’19-’21

 

3. Consumer’s preferences are to buy fashion, beauty and electronics as they look to spend on clothing for festive season and also use annual bonus income

Consumers are also very excited about the upcoming Lebaran. 2020 saw many consumers come online as a result of lockdown measures and both new and mature consumers are excited to shop online resulting from stronger purchasing power. Many new shoppers also come online during this period as a result of massive discount offers. Some category-level trends are highlighted below

  • Fashion to be led primarily by celebratory clothing; Muslim fashion likely to see a huge jump
  • Grocery is expected to continue its organic growth as shoppers prepare for festivities and FMCG products are expected to do well
  • Electronics to be led by home & kitchen appliances as consumers look inclined purchase durables during this period
  • Beauty is likely to see strong demand for premium cosmetic products, a significant portion of which is imported from the overseas market

Monthly User Spend on e-commerce – Annual average vs Lebaran

 

4. Sellers also look to actively participate in the Lebaran season by subscribing to value added services offered by the players and an increased spend as well

Sellers also look to take advantage of the sale month by using value-added services leading to potentially higher sales for them. The seller base using such services more than doubles and the spend per seller in this month goes over 1.7x leading to a net ~3.5x increase in VAS revenue for e-commerce players which offsets some of the high discounting spends.

% of total seller base subscribing to advertising & subscription services