Oct, 2020     

Logistics in the 2020 eCommerce Festive Season

Basis strong shipments growth, we expect the festive sales GMV for the first event to grow 50% y-o-y over CY19 to reach $4 Bn


1. 5 key logistics themes to dominate eCommerce festive season 2020

 

 

2. We expect the total shipments during first eCommerce festive event to grow 60% y-o-y over CY19 to reach 150 Mn

No of Shipments during Festive period split by city tier(In Mn)

Note(s):

  • Festive Event1 Sale Dates(2019) – Sep 28th to Oct 6th
  • Assuming 7 day long festive sale days in 2020 whereas festive days 2019 were 8 days long

Overall festive day shipments for the first festive event to rise 60% vs 2019. Additionally, the faster growth in shipments with decreasing average order value is driven by the rise of value seeking consumers who purchase a broad range of categories apart from mobiles.

3. 3P logistics players will handle 50% of festive day shipments in 2020, similar to 2019 levels

Share of 3PL logistics in overall shipments split by city tier(In Mn)

Note(s):

  • Festive Event 1 Sale Dates(2019)-Sep 28th to Oct 6th
  • BAU month for 2019 are Apr, May and June; Post COVID months are May, June and July

Despite steep rise in overall shipments vs 2019, we expect that e-tailers will have a 50-50 share of in-house and 3P logistics.

E-tailers to maintain high share of in-house logistics in Metro/Tier 1 cities owing to significant investment by leading online platforms in ramping up infrastructure in these cities and the high-speed expectations of convenience seeking customers.

Whereas 3PL players will cater to needs of Bharat consumers driven by their significant presence in the hinterlands of the country.

4. Hyperlocal shipments during festive season CY20 to grow by 250%+ over CY 19

No of Shipments during Festive period split by shipment type(In Mn)

Note(s): Festive Sale Date 2019-Sep 28th to Oct 6th

While hyperlocal during 2019 festive period comprised majorly of egrocery, we expect that hyperlocal shipments during 2020 festive period will be driven by O2O/omni-channel initiative of players across fashion, electronics and beauty coupled with egrocery and epharma players.

5. Basis strong shipments growth, we expect the festive sales GMV for the first event to grow 50% y-o-y over CY19 to reach $4 Bn

Indian E-tailing GMV (Festive Season – Sale 1), USD