1. Retail market is headed towards recovery driven by non-essentials however will still likely end up smaller in size than last year

India Retail– Market Size

in $ Bn


India Retail– Market Size

in $ Bn

India’s retail sector which employs lakhs of people is bouncing back largely driven by resilience in Grocery and FMCG category and opening up of brick & mortar stores for non-essential categories as well. The market has steadily recovered upto 80% which is about $780B currently.

2. In contrast, India Internet continues it rapid post COVID recovery in August 2020

India Consumer Internet- Overall Market

Category Wise Mix, USD Bn (Monthly GMV, Annualised

Although the overall recovery is steady for new-age companies, different categories are seeing different recoveries shows consumer sentiments.

3. Basis strong post COVID recovery, we have likely entered a sustained growth phase for Indian eCommerce and the best is yet to come

Indian E-Tailing Gross GMV- Size by Category
CY16-CY25F in USD Billions

India Internet is recovering swiftly from COVID, with overall market on track to reach/surpass pre-COVID levels very soon. Categories like Mobile, electronics, fashion are seeing faster recovery but we are seeing a sustained growth in e-commerce.

4. Rise of ‘Integrated eCommerce’ which digitizes both the front end and back end will create a new retail model in post COVID world

Indian Retail Market –Segmentation by Channel of Sales
% of Overall Retail, USD BN, CY 19

While last year, the mass of India’s retail was driven by conventional stores without digitization, this year basis the aggressive moves of the new players as well as eB2B incumbents, we see significant opportunity to disrupt this retail stack fundamentally.


  • Sandeep is the Partner of Redseer Strategy Consultants looking at the Middle East and Africa. He has 13+ years of experience in consulting and technology.