Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: Mobiles, Electronics, or Grocery—Who Rules the Seasonality Scorecard?
Nikhil Dalal
India’s overall online purchasing behaviour is “de-seasonalizing”; the annual Sept-Oct peak remains a dominant factor for the Online Retail sector. Let’s deep dive into the six core sectors that account for over 90% of Online Retail’s Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) to identify which sectors are highly seasonal and which are naturally stable.
The Monthly Seasonality Index Comparison and the Seasonality Index Difference, clearly show the extreme variation in demand swings across the top 6 core sectors
High Seasonality: The September-October “Spike” Sectors
Mobiles and Electronics exhibit the highest levels of seasonality, making them the riskiest to manage operationally.
- Mobiles have the most dramatic swing, with a Seasonality Index Diff (Highest month less Lowest month) of 1.7. Electronics follows closely with a difference of 1.3.
- Both peak sharply in September-October, with Mobiles reaching a monthly index close to 2.3 and Electronics nearing 2.0. This heavy reliance on the festive season confirms their demand is highly concentrated.
Moderate Seasonality: Swing Sectors
Home & Furniture and Fashion display substantial but less extreme seasonal volatility.
- Home & Furniture registers a Seasonality Index Diff of 0.85. Its demand curve shows a pronounced Sept-Oct peak, reflecting consumer spending on home upgrades during the festive period.
- Fashion is moderately seasonal with a diff of 0.52. Its curve is flatter throughout the year but still registers a clear lift in the Sept-Oct period.
Low Seasonality: The Stable Sectors
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The sectors focused on daily consumption and recurring needs are the most stable, contributing significantly to the overall “de-seasonalization” trend.
- Grocery has the lowest volatility of the six, with a Seasonality Index Diff of 0.3.
- Beauty & Personal Care is the next most stable, with a diff of 0.4.
The monthly curves for both are significantly flatter, consistently hovering close to the average monthly GMV (Index of 1.0) throughout the year. This stability is characteristic of low-ticket, high-frequency purchase items.
Key Implications
The strategic imperative remains to flatten the curve as much as possible, but the approach must be customized based on the sector’s inherent volatility.
For Brands: Customizing the Inventory and Marketing Mix
Brands must manage their most volatile sectors (Mobiles, Electronics) with a strategy of Peak-Creation in off-season months.
- De-risking High-Volatile Sectors: For Mobiles and Electronics, brands should consider launching exclusive models or sales events in low-SI months (like Jan-Apr) to generate new sales cycles and reduce the reliance on the single Sept-Oct peak for the majority of their annual revenue. This stabilizes the supply chain and provides a more consistent flow of business.
For Platforms: Orchestrating Demand Through Sector-Specific Triggers
Platforms must leverage the stability of essential sectors to drive consistent traffic and reduce the operational strain of a single, massive peak.
Boosting Stable sectors in Slow Periods: For naturally stable sectors like Grocery and Beauty & Personal Care, platforms should use Discount-Driven and targeted sector-specific rewards to ‘trigger’ purchases during off-peak months. This approach capitalizes on their consistent demand and helps fill in the troughs left by the volatile sectors, providing a more consistent stream of demand for all sellers.
Summary
India’s online retail landscape is evolving toward a more balanced demand curve, but Mobiles and Electronics still dictate the rhythm of the festive season. Winners will be those who can reengineer seasonality—creating demand in low months, sustaining engagement in stable categories, and managing festive peaks without disruption.
The insights have been derived from Redseer ‘Benchmarks’, the most reliable insights platform on the India Internet Landscape