The Online Grocery Report 2026: The Five-Way Win and What Comes Next 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In the UAE, Saudi Arabi and Egypt, the online grocery market has stopped being a single-winner race. 

In the last few years, online grocery has grown to ~$7.6 Bn in gross demand across the region, but offline grocery has only continued to expand instead of shrinking. While online grocery accounts for only ~6% of the totally grocery demand, it is still increasing towards ~28% a year. 

Redseer Strategy Consultants believe that this growth figure has produced something rare: a five-way win where all players are capturing value from the shift without impacting each other’s gains. New occasions have created a new form of demand rather than moving the demand elsewhere. 

The grocery store is not disappearing – initially reach and discounts were differentiators in the market. With a new layer of demand in the market catering to impulsive purchases, top-ups and urgent needs – anyone can now reach the shopper, with or without a store. 

The report decodes how the five-way win was built, what each of them are winning, what its durability is and what each group should do to increase their profits in the expansion feature before the market moves into a more selective phase.  

For platforms, retailers, brands and investors – the opportunity lies in understanding how much longer the broad-based win will last. 

REPORT CONTENT

1. The store has lost is monopoly over demand 

• New missions have changed the consumer’s shopping decision 
• The five consumer groups that define the pace and reasons for the shift 
• Why online grocery’s growth is additive for every party today 

2. Five distinct players are winning 

• Why this pattern is unusual compared to prior category disruptions like travel, streaming, online retail and food delivery 
• How the win is distributed across consumer groups 
• Why one grocery order counts as a win for two different players at once  

3. Digital-first platforms have scaled through retail enablement 

• How digital-first players have scaled from enabling retailers to operating dark stores  
• How digital-first players can extend their wins by concentrating on missions and cities where density already pays 

4. Omnichannel retailers have reached beyond the physical catchment 

• Why retailers supply and fulfil roughly 60% of UAE online grocery despite platforms capturing most order-entry share 
• How brands are using the digital shelf to prove demand in weeks instead of waiting for national listings 

5. What will win the next phase 

• Why has the food delivery’s earlier cycle become a relevant benchmark 
• Each player should take specific actions to increase their gains 

KNOW

• Why order growth alone is not enough anymore: Order growth alone increasingly benefits every player in the ecosystem instead of just one platform, and what that means for how success should be measured. 
• Why every win is being miscounted: All demand is credited to whichever app takes the order. It’s important to separate the entry-route share from supply-and-fulfillment share to know the exact story. 
• Where is the next phase of competition to be won: Know which stakeholder groups are best positioned to increase their profits as the market matures, and which risk losing ground if they continue to compete only on reach and discounting. 
• Is the window still open? Online grocery still has good time left before the consolidation seen in food delivery repeats itself; giving stakeholders enough time to act. 

REDSEER PERSPECTIVE

Redseer Strategy Consultants believe that the next phase of the online grocery market will be shaped more by those who can convert the broad-based win into a durable and defensible position. 

Platforms, retailers, brands and investors can win by understanding where value is concentrated precisely and can act ahead of the consolidation cycles visible in adjacent categories. But those who continue to compete only based on reach and discounting will experience risk because the value pool would have moved on by the time they respond to them. 

WHO SHOULD READ THIS

• Digital-First Grocery Platforms: To know where retailer-enabled and dark-store models are creating durable advantage, and where continued reliance on discounting is likely to erode it. 
• Omnichannel Retailers: Evaluate how much of today’s online grocery demand still runs through supply and fulfilment, and what it will take to defend that position as platforms scale. 
• Brands & Brand-Building Investors: Know how the digital shelf is compressing the path from online proof to physical retail listings, and what that means for go-to-market sequencing. 
• Private Equity & Venture Capital Investors: To assess the online grocery businesses through the durability of their position in the five-way win. 

STRATEGIC TAKEAWAYS

This Redseer Strategy Consulting report is designed for decision-makers responsible for identifying the next phase and how to win it: 

• Location is no longer the prize to be won, it is the customer relationship, and five different players are competing for it. 
• Online grocery is still at the early stage, and it is every player’s opportunity 
• Understand the five-way win, how long it will last and how each group can increase their gains 
• The mission of a shopper has changed from going to a store to top-up, click collect and react. How will it impact them when convenience is no longer free? 
• The players who can price convenience, prove economics and own the customer-relationship will be rewarded. 

Download the Report

In this report, discover that grocery stores no longer carry monopoly over demand. With a new layer of demand, what should their next play be.