UAE Online Grocery: Dark Stores Have the Momentum. Retailers Still Have the Market. 

Currently, the consensus amongst investors on GCC online grocery is that dark stores will win while Omnichannel players will struggle in the new digital landscape.

This is understandable as dark stores have indeed been gaining share over omnichannel over the last few years – their share of UAE online grocery has gone from 25% to 40% in two years. That is a real shift, and it is what most of the market has focused on.

Now the part that gets left out. In 2025, retailer-led omnichannel is still the biggest part of the market, at around $2 billion, or 60%. The model everyone assumes is losing is still the one in front.

The definition is important here because it is where this argument usually gets challenged. Retailer-led omnichannel means retailer-owned apps plus retailer inventory fulfilled through marketplace and aggregator channels, plus the smaller informal and social fresh layer. Even when the order comes through a marketplace app, we count it as retailer-led when the merchant, inventory, assortment, and fulfilment node are the retailer’s. The demand can be captured anywhere. What defines the model is who owns the supply.

So, the question is not really dark stores versus supermarket apps. It is who ends up owning the customer, the inventory, the order, and the margin. And that is a lot less settled than the room tends to think. 

Dark stores have won the speed story

Give dark stores their due. They are built for the quick mission. A forgotten ingredient, a late snack, a top-up run. In dense cities that speed builds habit, and habit builds frequency. That is how they went from 25% to 40% in two years. 

But speed is one reason people buy groceries. It is not the only one. And a model that wins the top-up run has not yet won the weekly shop. 

Retailers are not losing. They are sitting on a different set of strengths.

Most grocery is still planned, basket-led, and freshness-led. That is where retailers are strong. Store networks. Loyalty programs. Fresh trust. Wider range. Private labels that help both price and margin. 

Carrefour, Lulu, Spinneys and the rest are not starting from zero. They have years of customer trust and a physical footprint that is hard to copy. Dark stores have been better at apps, speed, and habit. Retailers have been better at trust, range, freshness, and basket size. The gap that decides the next few years is digital execution, and that gap can close. 

“Dark stores have been gaining share at unprecedented pace. The growth is real, but omnichannel is still the biggest part of the market, and retailers are sitting on trust and range that speed alone does not beat. Our view is that this settles into two models, not one.” 

Abhishek Rajput, Engagement Manager, Redseer 

2030 is not about how big the market gets. It is about who takes it. 

By 2030, UAE online grocery could be around $7 billion. However, the split is more interesting than the size. 

There are two live paths. In one, dark stores keep pulling ahead and reach nearly 60% by 2030, with omnichannel down to around 40%. In the other, retailers hold their ground and omnichannel stays the dominant channel, with dark stores large but not dominant. 

Execution is the biggest driver of which path plays out, though not the only one. Funding, consumer behaviour, pricing, regulation, private label, and unit economics all feed into it. But execution is the lever retailers most directly control. If they treat online as a side project, dark stores keep taking share. If they fix their apps, speed up fulfilment, use their loyalty base, and lean into private label, the market stays split. And dark stores have their own work to do, because as baskets grow, they have to prove they can handle range, freshness, and unit economics, not just speed. 

Redseer View

UAE online grocery is unlikely to become a one-model market. Dark stores will keep growing and are likely to gain share in the near term. But the idea that omnichannel is quietly dying does not hold up against the numbers. It still leads today, and it has a real path to stay important if retailers do the work. This is heading toward two organised models living side by side, not one winner taking all.