India’s eCommerce’s #festivaloffirsts set to brighten the last quarter of 2020
Driven by the massive shopper growth, we expect the festive sales for the first event to grow 50% y-o-y over CY19 to reach $4 Bn
1. In CY20, we believe that the eCommerce festive sales season will be a #festivaloffirsts due to five different reasons
5 firsts from 2020 festive season
2. COVID driven online adoption will massively drive up total and especially Bharat shoppers in first festive sale event for 2020
# of shoppers Festive Season – Sale 1 For overall Indian E-tailing, Mn.
Note (s): Festive Event 1 Sale Dates
- 2018- Oct 9th to Oct 14th
- 2019-Sep 28th to Oct 6th
The rise of the Bharat shopper during this festive season will have two clear impacts.
Firstly we expect a Change in the category mix owing to high share of first-time shoppers as consumers shop for a broader range of categories including long tail and non-electronics. All this means a fall in sales/shopper.
Secondly, we expect growing popularity of newer business models to cater to these shoppers including video and WhatsApp based eCommerce- where we see these models picking up during this festive season.
3. Driven by the massive shopper growth, we expect the festive sales for the first event to grow 50% y-o-y over CY19 to reach $4 Bn
E-tailing GMV Festive Season – Sale 1 For overall Indian E-tailing, INR Cr and USD.
We see many reasons to be very optimistic about this year’s festive sale season. For example, basis a consumer survey that we ran, we see that . Despite atleast a month to go before the sales, consumers show positive sentiments to purchase during this period per our survey.
Additionally we note that offline recovery is still weak as consumers as still apprehensive about visiting high human touchpoint areas like malls and retail outlets. We expect this to lead to consumers shifting a higher share of their wallet online than usual.
Finally, e-commerce platforms are expected to have significant focus on value offerings including private labels and various offers – which should further drive sales during this season as consumers struggle with the economic hit of COVID
4. Owing to the new wave of customers and changed dynamics due to COVID, category mix will look different vs previous years
Category Mix during Festive Season – Sale 1 For overall Indian E-tailing, INR Cr and USD.
Fashion will do well due to pent up demand coupled with activities and social gatherings increasing , aggressive discounts from platforms. Our consumer research also indicates positive sentiment towards fashion.
Also, long tail categories including Home and Home Furnishings to do better than anytime before due to high demand for upgrading work- from-home/ study-from-home environment.
Finally, mobiles and appliances to remain strong but not as large as previous years as demand for these categories has been somewhat satiated with category specific sales post lockdown.