May, 2020     

Indonesian eCommerce- Metamorphosis in a post COVID-19 world | Part 1

In a pre-COVID world, we forecasted Indonesian eCommerce to cross triple digits GMV by 2025


1. In a pre-COVID world, we forecasted Indonesian eCommerce to cross triple digits GMV by 2025

2019 has been an outstanding year for Indonesia’s eCommerce market and we predicted it to be very well set for rest of the decade when COVID-19 struck.

Basis supply and demand side interactions, our pre COVID forecasts indicated a >2x growth in both online shoppers and their annual spends over 2019-2025, ultimately enabling massive growth in online penetration over this period.


2. COVID-19 has forced major Indonesian e-tailers to pivot- there is a strong shift in focus to eGrocery category

Indonesia is one of the countries worst affected by COVID-19 in Asia, with high # cases and mortality rates.

As Indonesians get used to quarantine and avoid shopping even for essentials, one category that has boomed is eGrocery, which is seeing significant online demand across e-tailers. And e-tailers have indeed adapted rapidly to keep up with the changing nature of demand.


3. COVID disruption will drive accelerated eGrocery adoption and our pre-COVID forecasts will likely be achieved earlier

E-tailers had already been shifting their focus on digitizing Indonesia’s USD 200+ Bn grocery consumption in 2019.

However, COVID has accelerated this process. Given the rapid growth of eGrocery in March and April 2020, existing players in the space have scaled up rapidly while new players have also entered.

Big Question- how will this alter the growth trajectory of this category in 2020 and beyond?


4. Changes in demand side patterns will likely impact evolution of eLogistics market in Indonesia

COVID-19 has dealt a short term blow to the Foodtech sector in many countries and Indonesia is no exception. We believe players will need to successfully engage and execute with multiple stakeholders in order to achieve strong growth and unit economics in 2020 despite the pandemic.

Indications from other countries and from our work with multiple players in this space shows that achieving the seemingly impossible goals described earlier is possible. Tune in to our upcoming webinar to find out more.