The MENA grocery sector, now exceeding $100 billion in value, and accounts for 25% of regional consumer spending. Between 2019 and 2023, grocery sales grew by 16%, with forecasts for 2024 projecting a CAGR of 5%. This growth reflects both the market’s resilience and the evolving needs of its consumers. What was once a space dominated by low-frequency, high-value group purchases have shifted toward more frequent, lower-value individual orders, signaling a preference for convenience as lifestyles change.
The MENA grocery market is notably underrepresented in public markets, with publicly listed companies accounting for less than 10% of the total grocery GMV. This limited presence contrasts sharply with the more developed grocery markets in regions like the USA, UK, and France, the disparity signals an immense growth potential in MENA’s grocery sector, offering up to 6x the opportunity for public market expansion. Companies like Lulu, and Talabat are preparing to tap into the capital markets, signaling that the sector is ready for a new era of growth
Further, the market is on the verge of significant IPO activity, we project the grocery sector to witness $100 Bn worth of IPOs by 2030. We have identified over 30 potential IPOs, spanning major digital platforms like Talabat and Careem, as well as traditional giants such as Lulu and Carrefour. This broad spectrum of companies highlights the growing diversity within the sector.
Key to these IPOs is the 3S IPO Readiness Index, which measures Scalability, Sustainability, and Stability. Companies strong in these areas are expected to attract significant investor interest, demonstrating growth potential, long-term operational viability, and resilience to market fluctuations. Digital grocery players have shown promising scalability through Mult-vertical offerings, while traditional retailers benefit from established supply chains and regional brand loyalty.
This will have a multiplier effect on the entire ecosystem, driving innovation and fueling a cycle of growth benefiting a wide range of stakeholders. By 2030, we project $100 billion in IPOs within the MENA grocery sector, with approximately $30 billion in proceeds. These proceeds will ripple through the ecosystem, driving reinvestment into areas like customer experience, direct-to-consumer (D2C) offerings, private label development, and geographical expansion. Additionally, strategic investments such as partnerships and M&A activity will accelerate growth, benefiting smaller companies.
The ripple effects will include job creation, community development, and increased tax revenues, while also bolstering the local startup ecosystem by attracting venture capital and private equity investments. This reinvestment cycle will strengthen financial markets, boost investor confidence and attract foreign capital, positioning the MENA grocery sector for sustained economic growth and innovation
