A dynamic and fast-growing economy, a young population, and improving access to the internet continue to drive rapid adoption of digital services in Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Indonesia stands out in terms of the scale and size of its opportunity over the next few years. We expect digital services to deepen and widen to cater to the emerging consumer needs.
Speed and convenience are emerging as key-value props for consumers in on demand services. Recovery is expected in mobility (from a weak base), while structural tailwinds persist for food delivery and on demand logistics. In aggregate, Indonesia’s on demand services are estimated to grow at ~27.2% CAGR between 2020-25 to reach USD 18.0 bn.
E-commerce likely to see further growth, aided by segments such as e-grocery. Meanwhile, legacy categories are likely to witness growth on the back of growing preference for fast and convenient deliveries, higher penetration outside tier-one locations, and continued digitalization of offline stores. We estimate e-commerce to grow at 25.3% CAGR between 2020- 25 to reach USD 137.5 bn.
E-wallets serve as a strong foundation for new FinTech offerings. While digital payments will remain a core use case, new offerings such as credit/BNPL, insurance, and investments are likely to emerge as valuable add-ons over time. Merchant digital payments are likely to grow rapidly as well. We estimate e-wallets to grow at 31.5% CAGR between 2020-25 to reach USD 70.1 bn.