As Ramadan approaches, Muslims worldwide are preparing to embrace the holy month to dedicate time for spiritual reflection, fasting, and intentional prayer.
With one of the world’s largest Muslim populations, Indonesia experiences a surge in retail spending every Ramadan. So, what can we expect in 2025?
Indonesia has largest retail opportunity during Ramadan, with an impressive USD ~73 billion in projected spending for 2025.
This translates to roughly 300 USD per person, highlighting the significant spending power of Indonesian consumers during the festive season.
Recent data indicate that Indonesia’s GDP growth is expected to hover around 5.0% in 2025, following a series of steady but moderate expansions in 2024.
Bank Indonesia’s recent surprise rate cuts—reducing the benchmark rate to 5.75%—highlight a policy shift toward growth support amid financial market volatility and a weakening rupiah. This move is designed to offset subdued household consumption and export activity.
With inflation moderated (recent figures around 1.57% in December 2024) and consumer confidence buoyed in parts of the region, brands should expect cautious optimism from shoppers.
That being said, Ramadan indeed is the main time for Indonesians to splurge and ~93% of consumers are excited about Ramadan this year. The level of excitement is the highest amongst younger urban demographics – who will be the biggest spenders this season. Benefiting organized retail, new age brands and ecommerce companies
The cautiousness amongst the consumers has led them to postpone some of their big-ticket purchases. However, as the THR bonus comes in we expect to see a spike in higher ticket spending.
While, for the ones pushing the bigger ticket purchase for later – we expect to see some of the money saved to flow on to discretionary smaller ticket sized purchases. Trendy products & wish list items expected to fly out of shelves.
Live commerce driven impulse purchases to be higher than ever!
Like every year we expect Grocery, Dining Out, Fashion & Women’s BPC to be at the center of consumer spending. However, this year we see Gifting along with Health & Wellness as categories that are expected to break out.
Brands should focus on bundling and creating gift-related marketing campaigns to make the most out of the opportunity. While Health & Wellness brands also need to create some educational content – as we had covered in our previous newsletter Supplements & Athleisure stand to benefit the most.
Travel is another interesting category, despite having a high-ticket price has one of the highest increases in year-on-year consumer spending
Consumers have made it clear how much they like a good deal, and they are willing to work for it. An average consumer now starts exploring the internet for deals and shopping inspiration 5-10 days before they make the transaction.
As discovery is increasingly driven by eCommerce websites & social media (especially live video) the right content strategy and advertising will make the difference.
Making sharable content around gifting ideas and promotions will be a winning strategy.
Live Commerce to be critical this year as well.
We see the growth momentum to continue this year as well.
If you want to know more about what your brand can do to win Ramadan this year, please feel free to reach out.
Ramadan Mubarak! Wishing you and your loved ones a blessed and fulfilling Ramadan ahead
